US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

3 monthsRange50%
3M Range probability 100%Range

MSTR 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Break either side of $9 - $543 with volume.

Invalidation Trigger

A trend close outside the ATR band changes the range thesis.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 48.0, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $123.21 (126.11%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$160.1Bearish
EMA 21$131.16Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 48.0 · MACD --

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $123.21 · BB 351.83%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 59.0 · OBV -317.71%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$9 - $543

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+581.89% · 4.6 ATR above latest close

$666.21
Nearest resistance

+455.78% · 3.6 ATR above · 29-bar high

$543
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$97.7
Nearest support

-90.79% · 0.7 ATR below · 29-bar low

$9
Deeper support zone

-216.9% · 1.7 ATR below latest close

-$114.21
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

-$25.51 - $220.91

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $197, invalidation $81.81

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

66.6 / 34.2 / 12.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$356.46Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$294.67 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

16%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$123.21 (126.11%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 351.83%

43%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$436.9 / -$165.26Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

-$25.51 / $220.91Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$9Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.8 / 16.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-27.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

59.0Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-317.71%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.19xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $197, invalidation $81.81

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

66.6 / 34.2 / 12.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$356.46Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$294.67 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

16%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.8 / 16.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-27.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$123.21 (126.11%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 351.83%

43%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$436.9 / -$165.26Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

-$25.51 / $220.91Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

59.0Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-317.71%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.19xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$9Range

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