US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

3 monthsBearish56%
3M Downside probability 56%Bearish

MSTR 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $114.93 and stabilize above resistance $542.8.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $542.8 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 48.7, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $121.2 (116.74%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$181.87Bearish
EMA 21$114.93Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 48.7 · MACD --

Neutral zone

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $121.2 · BB 357.13%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 59.0 · OBV -3719.16%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$11.62 - $542.8

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+539.57% · 4.6 ATR above latest close

$664
Nearest resistance

+422.83% · 3.6 ATR above · 24-bar high

$542.8
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$103.82
Nearest support

-88.81% · 0.8 ATR below · 24-bar low

$11.62
Deeper support zone

-205.55% · 1.8 ATR below latest close

-$109.58
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

-$17.38 - $225.02

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $457.17, invalidation $30.82

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

-- / -- / --Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$334.78Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

-- / --Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$121.2 (116.74%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 357.13%

45%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$446.21 / -$200.49Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

-$17.38 / $225.02Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$542.8Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$11.62Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.0 / 21.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-83.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

1.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

59.0Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-3719.16%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.20xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $457.17, invalidation $30.82

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

-- / -- / --Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$334.78Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

-- / --Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.0 / 21.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-83.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

1.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$121.2 (116.74%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 357.13%

45%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$446.21 / -$200.49Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

-$17.38 / $225.02Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

59.0Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-3719.16%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.20xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$542.8Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$11.62Range

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