US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

3 monthsRange53%
3M Range probability 94%Range

MSTR 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Break either side of $9 - $543 with volume.

Invalidation Trigger

A trend close outside the ATR band changes the range thesis.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 49.3, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $131.51 (114.95%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$159.52Bearish
EMA 21$134.22Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 49.3 · MACD --

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $131.51 · BB 332.53%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 60.0 · OBV -49.18%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$9 - $543

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+489.56% · 4.3 ATR above latest close

$674.51
Nearest resistance

+374.61% · 3.3 ATR above · 30-bar high

$543
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$114.41
Nearest support

-92.13% · 0.8 ATR below · 30-bar low

$9
Deeper support zone

-207.08% · 1.8 ATR below latest close

-$122.51
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

-$17.1 - $245.92

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $457.22, invalidation $81.81

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

66.6 / 31.9 / 11.4Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$325.95Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$294.81 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$131.51 (114.95%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 332.53%

46%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$450.02 / -$172.91Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

-$17.1 / $245.92Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$9Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

16.3 / 18.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-83.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-5.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

60.0Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-49.18%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.60xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $457.22, invalidation $81.81

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

66.6 / 31.9 / 11.4Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$325.95Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$294.81 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

16.3 / 18.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-83.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-5.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$131.51 (114.95%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 332.53%

46%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$450.02 / -$172.91Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

-$17.1 / $245.92Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

60.0Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-49.18%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.60xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$9Range

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