US stock / ETF

Morgan Stanley

MS · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish78%
4h Downside probability 78%Bearish

MS 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $219.61 and stabilize above resistance $230.12.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $230.12 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.0, MACD -1.784

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $4.44 (2.08%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$219.43Bearish
EMA 21$219.61Bearish
EMA 50$213.55Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.0 · MACD -1.784

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.44 · BB 8.74%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 65.6 · OBV -57.84%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$205.85 - $230.12

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+10.17% · 4.9 ATR above latest close

$234.56
Nearest resistance

+8.08% · 3.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$230.12
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$212.91
Nearest support

-3.32% · 1.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$205.85
Deeper support zone

-5.4% · 2.6 ATR below latest close

$201.41
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$208.47 - $217.35

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $219.98, invalidation $226.84

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.2 / 22.6 / 40.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$201.22Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$219.07 / $213.1Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

4%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.44 (2.08%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 8.74%

5%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$228.11 / $211.41Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$208.47 / $217.35Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$230.12Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$205.85Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.784Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

4.3 / 10.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-95.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-143.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

65.6Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-57.84%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.43xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $219.98, invalidation $226.84

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.2 / 22.6 / 40.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$201.22Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$219.07 / $213.1Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

4%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.784Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

4.3 / 10.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-95.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-143.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.44 (2.08%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 8.74%

5%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$228.11 / $211.41Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$208.47 / $217.35Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

65.6Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-57.84%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.43xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$230.12Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$205.85Range

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