US stock / ETF

Morgan Stanley

MS · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish84%
4h Downside probability 84%Bearish

MS 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $221.09 and stabilize above resistance $234.67.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $234.67 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 37.6, MACD -1.608

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $4.9 (2.28%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$218.26Bearish
EMA 21$221.09Bearish
EMA 50$220.7Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 37.6 · MACD -1.608

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.9 · BB 10.15%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 46.9 · OBV -8.65%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$207.4 - $234.67

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+11.18% · 4.9 ATR above latest close

$239.57
Nearest resistance

+8.9% · 3.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$234.67
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$215.49
Nearest support

-3.76% · 1.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$207.4
Deeper support zone

-6.03% · 2.6 ATR below latest close

$202.49
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$210.59 - $220.39

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $207.4, invalidation $228.8

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.5 / 10.9 / 40.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$202.24Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$219.57 / $220.7Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

30%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$4.9 (2.28%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 10.15%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$229.59 / $212.46Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$210.59 / $220.39Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$234.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$207.4Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.608Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

29.7 / 29.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-70.3Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-108.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

46.9Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-8.65%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.07xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $207.4, invalidation $228.8

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.5 / 10.9 / 40.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$202.24Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$219.57 / $220.7Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

30%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.608Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

29.7 / 29.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-70.3Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-108.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$4.9 (2.28%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 10.15%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$229.59 / $212.46Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$210.59 / $220.39Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

46.9Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-8.65%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.07xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$234.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$207.4Range

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