US stock / ETF

International Business Machines Corporation

IBM · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish75%
4h Downside probability 75%Bearish

IBM 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $246.39 and stabilize above resistance $258.38.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $258.38 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.0, MACD 0.178

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $2.51 (1.03%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$245.76Bearish
EMA 21$246.39Bearish
EMA 50$247.01Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.0 · MACD 0.178

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.51 · BB 2.17%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 44.5 · OBV -6.62%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$240.35 - $258.38

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+6.43% · 6.3 ATR above latest close

$260.89
Nearest resistance

+5.41% · 5.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$258.38
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$245.12
Nearest support

-1.95% · 1.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$240.35
Deeper support zone

-2.97% · 2.9 ATR below latest close

$237.84
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$242.61 - $247.64

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $249.38, invalidation $244.37

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

41.1 / 16.7 / 20.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$237.46Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$245.98 / $250.68Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

36%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.51 (1.03%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.17%

34%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$251.49 / $241.16Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$242.61 / $247.64Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$258.38Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$240.35Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.178Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

36.3 / 38.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-63.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-47.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.62%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.03xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $249.38, invalidation $244.37

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

41.1 / 16.7 / 20.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$237.46Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$245.98 / $250.68Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

36%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.178Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

36.3 / 38.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-63.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-47.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.51 (1.03%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.17%

34%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$251.49 / $241.16Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$242.61 / $247.64Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.62%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.03xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$258.38Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$240.35Range

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