US stock / ETF

CME Group Inc.

CME · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish73%
4h Downside probability 73%Bearish

CME 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $276.07 and stabilize above resistance $283.01.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $283.01 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 37.1, MACD -0.511

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $2.41 (0.88%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$274.32Bearish
EMA 21$276.07Bearish
EMA 50$276.94Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 37.1 · MACD -0.511

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.41 · BB 3.88%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 51.8 · OBV -330.89%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$270.16 - $283.01

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+4.75% · 5.4 ATR above latest close

$285.41
Nearest resistance

+3.87% · 4.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$283.01
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$272.46
Nearest support

-0.84% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$270.16
Deeper support zone

-1.73% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$267.75
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$270.05 - $274.87

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $273.9, invalidation $275.82

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.2 / 22.9 / 30.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$265.08Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$276.11 / $280.03Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.41 (0.88%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.88%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$280.9 / $271.06Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$270.05 / $274.87Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$283.01Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$270.16Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.511Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

19.3 / 11.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-80.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-118.4Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 7Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

51.8Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-330.89%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.84xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $273.9, invalidation $275.82

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.2 / 22.9 / 30.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$265.08Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$276.11 / $280.03Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.511Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

19.3 / 11.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-80.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-118.4Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 7Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.41 (0.88%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.88%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$280.9 / $271.06Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$270.05 / $274.87Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

51.8Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-330.89%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.84xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$283.01Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$270.16Range

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