US stock / ETF

CME Group Inc.

CME · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish88%
4h Downside probability 88%Bearish

CME 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $242.89 and stabilize above resistance $269.71.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $269.71 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 22.1, MACD -2.314

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $4.69 (2.1%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$231.46Bearish
EMA 21$242.89Bearish
EMA 50$256.5Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 22.1 · MACD -2.314

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.69 · BB 22.78%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 40.6 · OBV -44.07%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$221.1 - $269.71

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+22.95% · 10.9 ATR above latest close

$274.4
Nearest resistance

+20.85% · 9.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$269.71
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$223.19
Nearest support

-0.93% · 0.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$221.1
Deeper support zone

-3.03% · 1.4 ATR below latest close

$216.41
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$218.5 - $227.87

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $245.61, invalidation $249.37

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

53.6 / 11.6 / 53.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$209.05Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$240.32 / $257.92Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

4%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.69 (2.1%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 22.78%

8%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$251.28 / $233.19Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$218.5 / $227.87Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$269.71Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$221.1Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

22.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.314Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

5.7 / 2.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-94.3Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-148.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 7Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-44.07%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.56xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $245.61, invalidation $249.37

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

53.6 / 11.6 / 53.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$209.05Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$240.32 / $257.92Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

4%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

22.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.314Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

5.7 / 2.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-94.3Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-148.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 7Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.69 (2.1%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 22.78%

8%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$251.28 / $233.19Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$218.5 / $227.87Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-44.07%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.56xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$269.71Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$221.1Range

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