US stock / ETF

Ralph Lauren Corporation

RL · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

RL 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $379.5 and stabilize above resistance $410.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $410 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 37.1, MACD -0.482

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $4.53 (1.22%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$374.63Bearish
EMA 21$379.5Bearish
EMA 50$383.9Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 37.1 · MACD -0.482

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.53 · BB 5.92%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 40.4 · OBV -8.10%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$366.01 - $410

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+11.26% · 9.3 ATR above latest close

$414.53
Nearest resistance

+10.04% · 8.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$410
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$372.59
Nearest support

-1.77% · 1.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$366.01
Deeper support zone

-2.98% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

$361.48
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$368.06 - $377.12

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $366.01, invalidation $380

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.6 / 25.0 / 24.7Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$360.86Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$378.2 / $386.32Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.53 (1.22%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 5.92%

19%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$387.01 / $371.37Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$368.06 / $377.12Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$410Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$366.01Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.482Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

34.7 / 34.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-65.3Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-107.9Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-8.10%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.75xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $366.01, invalidation $380

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.6 / 25.0 / 24.7Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$360.86Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$378.2 / $386.32Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.482Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

34.7 / 34.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-65.3Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-107.9Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.53 (1.22%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 5.92%

19%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$387.01 / $371.37Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$368.06 / $377.12Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-8.10%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.75xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$410Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$366.01Range

Related Forecasts