US stock / ETF

Paychex, Inc.

PAYX · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

PAYX 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $118.3 and stabilize above resistance $127.95.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $127.95 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 30.5, MACD -0.090

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.05 (0.9%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$115.9Bearish
EMA 21$118.3Bearish
EMA 50$120.74Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 30.5 · MACD -0.090

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.05 · BB 12.87%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 42.4 · OBV -1.97%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$114.25 - $127.95

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+11.4% · 12.6 ATR above latest close

$129
Nearest resistance

+10.49% · 11.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$127.95
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$115.8
Nearest support

-1.34% · 1.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$114.25
Deeper support zone

-2.24% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

$113.2
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$114.75 - $116.85

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $114.25, invalidation $116.23

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

58.8 / 12.5 / 54.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$113.27Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$118 / $121.1Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

13%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.05 (0.9%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 12.87%

31%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$119.82 / $116.45Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$114.75 / $116.85Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$127.95Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$114.25Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

30.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.090Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

20.8 / 15.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-79.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-56.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 4Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

42.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-1.97%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.62xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $114.25, invalidation $116.23

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

58.8 / 12.5 / 54.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$113.27Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$118 / $121.1Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

13%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

30.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.090Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

20.8 / 15.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-79.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-56.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 4Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.05 (0.9%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 12.87%

31%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$119.82 / $116.45Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$114.75 / $116.85Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

42.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-1.97%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.62xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$127.95Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$114.25Range

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