US stock / ETF

Paychex, Inc.

PAYX · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish92%
Monthly Downside probability 92%Bearish

PAYX 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $115.21 and stabilize above resistance $161.24.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $161.24 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 44.7, MACD -3.222

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $12.84 (11.73%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$104.28Bullish
EMA 21$115.21Bearish
EMA 50$116.56Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 44.7 · MACD -3.222

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $12.84 · BB 74.22%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 25.1 · OBV -37.49%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$85.45 - $161.24

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+58.95% · 5.0 ATR above latest close

$174.08
Nearest resistance

+47.22% · 4.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$161.24
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$109.52
Nearest support

-21.98% · 1.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$85.45
Deeper support zone

-33.71% · 2.9 ATR below latest close

$72.61
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$96.68 - $122.36

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $161.24, invalidation $85.45

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

45.4 / 8.8 / 36.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$70.28Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$112.49 / $123.35Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

32%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$12.84 (11.73%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 74.22%

34%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$138.11 / $91.33Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$96.68 / $122.36Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$161.24Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.45Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.222Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

31.8 / 21.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-68.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-55.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

25.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-37.49%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.36xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $161.24, invalidation $85.45

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

45.4 / 8.8 / 36.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$70.28Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$112.49 / $123.35Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

32%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.222Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

31.8 / 21.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-68.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-55.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$12.84 (11.73%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 74.22%

34%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$138.11 / $91.33Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$96.68 / $122.36Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

25.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-37.49%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.36xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$161.24Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.45Range

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