US stock / ETF

Paychex, Inc.

PAYX · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish92%
Monthly Downside probability 92%Bearish

PAYX 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $113.7 and stabilize above resistance $161.24.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $161.24 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 41.3, MACD -1.189

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $14.1 (14.25%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$105.86Bearish
EMA 21$113.7Bearish
EMA 50$115.8Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 41.3 · MACD -1.189

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $14.1 · BB 73.76%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 36.0 · OBV -47.25%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$85.45 - $161.24

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+77.21% · 5.4 ATR above latest close

$175.34
Nearest resistance

+62.97% · 4.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$161.24
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$98.94
Nearest support

-13.63% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$85.45
Deeper support zone

-27.88% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$71.35
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$84.84 - $113.04

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $161.24, invalidation $85.45

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

43.6 / 16.9 / 35.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$56.15Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$115.03 / $123.35Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$14.1 (14.25%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 73.76%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$142.44 / $84.08Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$84.84 / $113.04Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$161.24Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.45Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.189Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

25.2 / 37.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-74.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-70.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

36.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-47.25%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.13xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $161.24, invalidation $85.45

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

43.6 / 16.9 / 35.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$56.15Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$115.03 / $123.35Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.189Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

25.2 / 37.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-74.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-70.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$14.1 (14.25%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 73.76%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$142.44 / $84.08Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$84.84 / $113.04Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

36.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-47.25%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.13xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$161.24Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.45Range

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