US stock / ETF

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.

AVB · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish92%
Monthly Downside probability 92%Bearish

AVB 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $188.73 and stabilize above resistance $239.29.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $239.29 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 46.6, MACD -0.407

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $15.52 (8.43%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$183.6Bullish
EMA 21$188.73Bearish
EMA 50$192.83Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.6 · MACD -0.407

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $15.52 · BB 34.08%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 51.4 · OBV -169.07%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$160.1 - $239.29

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+38.44% · 4.6 ATR above latest close

$254.81
Nearest resistance

+30.01% · 3.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$239.29
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$184.06
Nearest support

-13.02% · 1.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$160.1
Deeper support zone

-21.45% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

$144.57
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$168.54 - $199.58

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $160.1, invalidation $186.77

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

57.0 / 10.5 / 27.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$142.31Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$189.53 / $196.18Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

34%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$15.52 (8.43%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 34.08%

38%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$217.25 / $159.57Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$168.54 / $199.58Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$239.29Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$160.1Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.407Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

51.7 / 52.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-48.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-34.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

51.4Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-169.07%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.65xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $160.1, invalidation $186.77

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

57.0 / 10.5 / 27.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$142.31Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$189.53 / $196.18Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

34%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.407Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

51.7 / 52.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-48.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-34.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$15.52 (8.43%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 34.08%

38%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$217.25 / $159.57Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$168.54 / $199.58Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

51.4Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-169.07%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.65xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$239.29Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$160.1Range

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