US stock / ETF

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

AJG · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish78%
4h Downside probability 78%Bearish

AJG 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $250.17 and stabilize above resistance $269.99.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $269.99 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 44.8, MACD 0.026

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $2.45 (0.99%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$249.35Bearish
EMA 21$250.17Bearish
EMA 50$250.16Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 44.8 · MACD 0.026

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.45 · BB 3.28%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 53.2 · OBV 1.02%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$239.53 - $269.99

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+9.8% · 9.9 ATR above latest close

$272.44
Nearest resistance

+8.81% · 8.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$269.99
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$248.12
Nearest support

-3.46% · 3.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$239.53
Deeper support zone

-4.45% · 4.5 ATR below latest close

$237.08
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$245.67 - $250.57

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $247.09, invalidation $251.98

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

35.5 / 19.1 / 38.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$240.75Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$252.54 / $254.76Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

52%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.45 (0.99%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.28%

37%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$255.02 / $245.2Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$245.67 / $250.57Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$269.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$239.53Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.026Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

53.0 / 57.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-47.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-47.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

53.2Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

1.02%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.11xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $247.09, invalidation $251.98

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

35.5 / 19.1 / 38.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$240.75Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$252.54 / $254.76Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

52%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.026Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

53.0 / 57.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-47.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-47.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.45 (0.99%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.28%

37%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$255.02 / $245.2Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$245.67 / $250.57Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

53.2Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

1.02%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.11xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$269.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$239.53Range

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