US stock / ETF

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

AJG · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish57%
4h Downside probability 57%Bearish

AJG 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $262.69 and stabilize above resistance $271.99.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $271.99 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 46.6, MACD -1.259

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $3.26 (1.25%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$263.52Bearish
EMA 21$262.69Bearish
EMA 50$258.55Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.6 · MACD -1.259

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.26 · BB 6.85%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 37.6 · OBV -6.23%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$247.4 - $271.99

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+5.8% · 4.6 ATR above latest close

$275.25
Nearest resistance

+4.55% · 3.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$271.99
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$260.15
Nearest support

-4.9% · 3.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$247.4
Deeper support zone

-6.15% · 4.9 ATR below latest close

$244.14
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$256.89 - $263.41

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $270.75, invalidation $259.26

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

50.7 / 19.7 / 34.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$250.41Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$262.67 / $258.66Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

30%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.26 (1.25%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 6.85%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$269.35 / $256.37Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$256.89 / $263.41Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$271.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$247.4Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.259Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

7.0 / 17.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-93.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-67.7Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.23%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.05xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $270.75, invalidation $259.26

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

50.7 / 19.7 / 34.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$250.41Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$262.67 / $258.66Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

30%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.259Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

7.0 / 17.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-93.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-67.7Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.26 (1.25%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 6.85%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$269.35 / $256.37Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$256.89 / $263.41Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.23%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.05xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$271.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$247.4Range

Related Forecasts